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2018 Atlantic usercane season
If you're new to the usercane concept, check this blog if you want to see how usercanes work: How Usercanes Actually Work. ---- The 2018 Atlantic usercane season is an ongoing event in usercane formation. It is the ninth season of usercane formation, and the third season of operational usercane tracking. Storms forming between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018, will be a part of this season. The 2018 season featured the highest number of userpressions developing in the month of January, February, and March. The season's first userpression, which later became Tropical Userstorm Avdis, developed on January 3, and became the earliest tropical userpression ever to develop in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory) in the 2016 season. The season's strongest storm is Tropical Userstorm Harris, which was the fastest developing tropical userstorm on record, reaching tropical userstorm status just 2 hours after first being identified as a trough of low pressure. The 2018 season has thus far been a very weak season, with no storms strengthening to severe tropical userstorms or usercanes. For the first time since 2015, two tropical userstorms formed in the month of March (Harris and Cyclophoon). Six userpressions formed in the aforementioned month - the greatest number of userpressions in the month since 2015, of which three became userstorms, tying it with the 2015 season in terms of named userstorms. Seasonal forecasts Before and during the season, several agencies release forecasts regarding usercane activity. Pre-season outlooks On December 3, the Cooper Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, calling for an above average season in terms of named storms, but a below average season in terms of usercanes and major usercanes. The same day, the FMC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 26-32 named storms, 3-9 usercanes, and 1-6 major usercanes. On December 4, 2017, the BNWC released their 2018 forecast on December 4, predicting 30-40 named storms, 3-7 usercanes, and 1-4 major usercanes, The same day, the GIHC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 35 named storms, 6 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. Two days later, the HMA released their first forecast for the season, predicting 33-45 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 1 major usercanes. They also said that the number of userstorms was to explode sometime after late August. On December 7, the Nova International Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, predicting 27-40 named storms, 2-3 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes.On December 24, the JCSC predicted a below average season, with 20-25 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2-3 major usercanes, but also added that there was a 30% chance of a hyperactive season similar to 2017. On December 24, the CMC revised their predictions for the season, increasing the number of usercanes and major usercanes, but retaining the same number of storms. On the same day, the Prism Weather Center released their first forecast for the season, predicting 23-36 named storms, 4-11 usercanes and 1-7 major usercanes. On December 31, one hour before the season starts, the CSHC released their prediction for the season, predicting 28 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. Mid-season outlooks On January 1st, the BNMA released their prediction, predicting a similar season to 2017, with 27-30 named storms, 4-7 usercanes and 1-3 major usercanes. the HMA released their revised prediction on January 1, 2018, predicting 36 named storms, 7 usercanes and 4 major usercanes. After a very active January, the JCSC released their revised prediction, predicting a season more like 2017, with 30-40 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. On January 26, BMA released their first forecast for the season, predicting 30-40 named storms, 6 usercanes and 3 major usercanes, predicting it will be a season somewhat alike to 2017. On February 12, the CMC revised their predictions on the number of named userstorms developing after a record-breaking January, with no change in the number of usercanes and major usercanes. The CMC then lowered the number of usercanes and major usercanes in their forecast to 3 and 1, respectively, after the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation continued to weaken. They also set a more concrete range on the number of named userstorms in their updated prediction. On the same day, the BMA issued their new forecasts for the season, predicting 35-47 named storms. The BMA also lowered the number of usercanes from 6 to 4, and revising the number of major usercanes from 3 to just 1. On April 2, the Meteorological Center for Hurricanes and Winter Storms (MCHWS) released their forecast for the season, predicting above-average activity, with 36-42 named storms, 4-6 usercanes, and 2-4 major usercanes. On April 7, the BMA released their 3rd forecast for the season, predicting 32-44 named storms, 3 usercanes and 1 major usercane. Timeline ImageSize = width:700 height:420 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:190 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/01/2018 till:31/01/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_New_User id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_User id:STS value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Severe_Tropical_Storm_=_Autopatroller id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_Chat_Moderator id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_Rollback id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_Junior_Admin id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_Administrator id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_Bureaucrat id:C6 value:rgb(0.70,0.01,0.01) legend:Category_6_=_Experienced_Bureaucrat Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:03/01/2018 till:27/01/2018 color:TS from:08/01/2018 till:24/01/2018 color:TD text:"Two (TD)" from:14/01/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Blue (TS)" from:16/01/2018 till:05/02/2018 color:TS text:"Morgan (TS)" from:20/01/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Brickkks (TS)" from:20/01/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Mobile (TS)" from:24/01/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Cube (TS)" from:25/01/2018 till:03/02/2018 color:TD from:09/02/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Frosty (TS)" from:10/02/2018 till:03/03/2018 color:TS text:"Irma (TS)" from:18/02/2018 till:03/03/2018 color:TD text:"Eleven (TD)" from:20/02/2018 till:12/03/2018 color:TS from:24/02/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Roy (TS)" from:10/03/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Harris (TS)" from:12/03/2018 till:26/03/2018 color:TS text:"Cyclophoon (TS)" from:16/03/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Roger (TS)" from:19/03/2018 till:02/04/2018 color:TD text:"Seventeen (TD)" from:30/03/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TD text:"Eighteen (TD)" from:31/03/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Tammy (TS)" from:08/04/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Delcore (TS)" barset:break from:02/02/2018 till:10/02/2018 color:TD text:"Avdis (TS)" barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip from:07/02/2018 till:01/04/2018 color:TS text:"Pstar (TS)" barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip from:30/03/2018 till:08/04/2018 color:TS text:"Aidan (TS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/01/2018 till:01/02/2018 text:January from:01/02/2018 till:01/03/2018 text:February from:01/03/2018 till:01/04/2018 text:March from:01/04/2018 till:01/05/2018 text:April from:01/05/2018 till:01/06/2018 text:May from:01/06/2018 till:01/07/2018 text:June from:01/07/2018 till:01/08/2018 text:July from:01/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 text:August from:01/09/2018 till:01/10/2018 text:September from:01/10/2018 till:01/11/2018 text:October from:01/11/2018 till:01/12/2018 text:November from:01/12/2018 till:01/01/2019 text:December from:01/01/2019 till:31/01/2019 text:2019 Systems Tropical Userstorm Avdis On January 3, a tropical userwave emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave quickly organized, strengthening into a tropical userpression on the same day, the first one of the season. Forming on January 3, it became the earliest first depression of any usercane season on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four in 2016. The userpression reached tropical userstorm status the next day, becoming the earliest named system to reach tropical userstorm status on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Userstorm Destiny of 2016. Shortly after reaching peak intensity, Avdis began to slowly weaken, and on January 27 the storm degenerated to a tropical userwave. On February 1, the remnants of Avdis began to show signs of regeneration, and the next day the remnants briefly regenerated into a tropical userpression. The regenerated system finally dissipated days later. Tropical Userpression Two (HurricaneRafael) On December 11, 2017, a weak tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. This wave lingered just off the coast of Africa for several days until it began a slow northwestward track. The wave remained weak and disorganized until January 8, when it was designated as Tropical Userpression Two. The nascent userpression struggled with a Saharan air mass and failed to strengthen significantly. On January 24, the depression was completely devoid of convection, and the NUC discontinued advisories as the system opened up into a tropical userwave. Tropical Userstorm Blue (Bluecaner) Another tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on December 18, 2017. The wave tracked swiftly westward across the tropical Atlantic and showed no signs of development until January 11, when the wave developed into a tropical userpression while located 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The system continued to steadily intensify, and on January 18 was designated as Tropical Userstorm Blue. Tropical Userstorm Morgan (TheRealHurricaneTrackerSps123) On June 17, 2017, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that was expected to detach from a stalled cold front. However, the low pressure area stalled over the Central Atlantic. Unusually, the low failed to strengthen and instead weakened rapidly. On January 16, another area of low pressure was identified over the Central Atlantic, and later assessed to have formed from the remnants of the June low, which was cycled through steering currents across the Atlantic. On January 16, the low was classified as Tropical Userpression Four. Four days later, it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Morgan and reached its peak intensity. Shortly thereafter, Morgan began to weaken as it accelerated northeast, and on February 3 the storm was absorbed by a cold front south of the Azores. Tropical Userstorm Brickkks On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed near roughly 100 miles off the coast of North Carolina. The low quickly attained tropical characteristics, and on the same day it was classified as Tropical Userpression Five. The userpression remained steady in intensity for a few days until January 26, when it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Brickks. After reaching peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), Brickkks began to slowly weaken as it accelerated northeast. On April 7, Brickkks became extratropical as it merged with a frontal system south of Nova Scotia. Tropical Userstorm Mobile (No.1 Mobile) On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed 160 miles north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low quickly developed into Tropical Userpression Six. The userpression was quick to intensify, and on January 22 the National Usercane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Userstorm Mobile. Tropical Userstorm Cube (FM Cube) On January 14, a trough of low pressure formed over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The trough stalled as it drew moisture from a tropical low to the south of the trough. By January 22, the trough began to show signs of significant organization, and on January 24 it was classified as a tropical userpression. On January 27, the userpression strengthened a great degree, and it was upgraded to Tropical Userstorm Cube. Tropical Userstorm Pstar (Pstar77) A large tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa on January 23. The wave then split, with the northern portion developing into a tropical userpression early on January 25. The nascent userpression struggled to intensify due to strengthening wind shear, and on February 3, the userpression degenerated to a remnant low as it succumbed to the effects of shear. The remnants drifted northwestward and began to reorganize under favorable conditions. On February 7, the userpression regenerated, and later the same day strengthened into a tropical userstorm, recieving the name Pstar. Under favorable conditions, Pstar gradually strengthened to reach peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h). However, Pstar unexpectedly began weakening in late March, and by March 30 it was nearly devoid of convection. On April 1, Pstar degenerated into an open wave over the southern Atlantic. Tropical Userstorm Frosty (Frosty2000) A tropical userpression formed from a tropical userwave northwest of Cape Verde on February 9. Despite uncertainty in the forecasting of the userpression, with some models expecting it to dissipate quickly, it instead quickly intensified into Tropical Userstorm Frosty. Throughout the following day, Frosty continued to quickly intensify, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) in less than a day after formation. Afterward, the storm continued to intensify at a fast rate throughout the following week. Eventually, Frosty began to level out in intensity, maintaining winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) as it remained well-organized. Tropical Userstorm Irma (Ef5tornadofan77) A shortwave trough formed over the central Atlantic on January 30. On February 8, the low detached from the front and subsequently began to acquire tropical characteristics. On February 10, the NUC classified the low as Tropical Userpression Ten. On February 14, due to low wind shear and abnormally high sea surface temperatures, the userpression strengthened into a tropical userstorm. Strong wind shear prevented further development, and Irma weakened to a tropical userpression on February 23. On March 3, the weakening userpression degenerated to a non-tropical remnant low. Tropical Userpression Eleven (Jwbaker15) A weak tropical userwave exited the west coast of Africa on December 11, 2017. The wave lingered just off the coast for several weeks until it began a slow northwestward track. On February 18, the userwave finally intensified into a tropical userpression. The userpression almost immediately began weakening, and by March 3 it had degenerated to an open wave. Tropical Userstorm Aidan (Aidan1493) On February 16, a tropical userwave emerged off the coast of Africa. Tracking westward, the wave began to organize under a favorable environment. On February 20, the NUC designated the system as Tropical Userpression Twelve. The following day, the userpression rapidly strengthened into a tropical userstorm, receiving the name Aidan. The newly-formed storm strengthened slightly to winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) as it battled moderate wind shear. Thereafter, Aidan became increasingly disorganized, weakening to a tropical userpression on March 5. On March 12, Aidan succumbed to the effects of shear and degenerated into a remnant low. Nearly two weeks later, the remnants of Aidian began to develop deep convection, and the NUC noted that regeneration was possible. On March 30, the remnants regenerated into a tropical userpression over the Central Atlantic. Aidan then regained tropical storm status two days later. Tropical Userstorm Roy (ArrDFe25) The interaction between a tropical userwave and an upper-level low spawned a tropical userpression on 03:00 UTC on February 25. The userpression struggled with moderate wind shear for weeks until it entered a more favorable enviornment, where it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Roy. Although initially disorganized, wind shear weakened throughout the following weeks, allowing Roy to become better organized and intensify. Tropical Userstorm Harris (Harris720) Early on March 10, the NUC began monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure that developed over the central Atlantic. The area split into two Located over favorable conditions, the low pressure area rapidly organized. On the same day, the NUC upgraded the low-pressure area to a tropical userstorm, due to continuously improving satellite appearance and the formation of a closed circulation. Harris rapidly strengthened, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) in less than 2 hours after formation. On March 30, Harris abruptly stopped strengthening and became disorganized, possibly due to outflow from the nearby Usercane Hype. Tropical Userstorm Cyclophoon Mid-day on March 11, the NUC began monitoring a tropical userwave that emerged off the coast of Africa. Unexpectedly, the wave quickly organized and developed deep convection, leading to the classification of a tropical userpression later that day. At 20:00 UTC, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Cyclophoon. However, dry air entered the system just days after formation, causing it to quickly weaken. On March 19, Cyclophoon weakened to a tropical userpression as it became increasingly disorganized, and by March 26 it lacked a closed circulation and was declared an open wave. Tropical Userstorm Roger (Rogerzwang) A disorganized tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on February 19. It remained disorganized as it tracked west-northwestward until March 10, when it rapidly organized and became a tropical userpression. The userpression strengthened slowly uner favorable conditions, and by March 26 it had strengthened into a tropical userstorm and was named Roger. Tropical Userpression Seventeen (AmazinglyOP) A trough of low pressure formed over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean on February 11. Due to strong wind shear, the trough remained weak. On March 5, the trough began to acquire tropical characteristics, and it strengthened into a tropical depression 12 days later. The NUC did not forecast strengthening of the system due to strengthening wind shear and the storm's location near the outflow of Usercane Roussil. The userpression gradually weakened throughout the following weeks, and on April 2 the depression dissipated while located south of the Azores. Tropical Userpression Eighteen (Herobrine45) A tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on March 26. Citing favorable conditions, the NUC marked the userwave as a potential contender for tropical cyclogenesis. On March 30, the wave gained sufficient convection to be classified as a tropical userpression. Tropical Userstorm Tammy (MajorHurricaneTammy) Another tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa on March 31. Unexpectedly, the wave rapidly organized and by 15:00 UTC it had organized into a tropical userpression. Due to a Saharan Air Layer, the userpression failed to strengthen initially. Despite an unfavorable environment, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Tammy. Tropical Userstorm Delcore (Ryan Delcore) On April 8, a tropical wave was marked for possible development by the NUC, while it was still located over Africa. Unusually, the wave rapidly organized, and a tropical userpression formed over Senegal at 07:00 UTC. Hours later, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Ryan. However, that turned out to be an error and was renamed Delcore. At that time, the storm was located just two miles off the coast of Senegal, marking the second easternmost formation of a tropical userstorm on record, trailing only Matthew of 2016. Delcore continued to strengthen, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) just a few hours after formation. Other systems A tropical userpression formed from a trough of low pressure west of Cape Verde on January 25. Operationally, the userpression was classified as Tropical Userpression Nine, and then Tropical Userstorm Moonlight. However, the storm was later found to have been a regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Fester. Season summary Season effects This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD. Category:Usercanes Category:Atlantic usercane seasons